Structural changes in the labor market and the rise of early retirement in France and Germany

in German Economic Review (in press)

The rise of early retirement in Europe is typically attributed to the European system of taxes and transfers. A model with an imperfectly competitive labor market allows us to consider also the effects of ... [more ▼]

The rise of early retirement in Europe is typically attributed to the European system of taxes and transfers. A model with an imperfectly competitive labor market allows us to consider also the effects of bargaining power and of matching efficiency on pre-retirement. We find that lower bargaining power of workers and declining matching efficiency have been important determinants of early retirement in France and Germany. These structural changes, combined with early-retirement transfers and population aging, are also consistent with the employment and unemployment rates, labor share and seniority premia. [less ▲]

Analyse de l’impact des interactions sectorielles sur l’évolution des salaires. Comparaison de quatre pays

Report (2017)

The main objective is to examine the interactions between various sectors in the determination of wages. After a brief description of sectoral specificities in wage setting, the core of the project ... [more ▼]

The main objective is to examine the interactions between various sectors in the determination of wages. After a brief description of sectoral specificities in wage setting, the core of the project consists in estimating different wages functions taking into account wage spillovers across macro-sectors (manufacturing industry, finance, other services and public sector). To this end, we use quarterly sectoral data on four countries (Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Germany) over the period 1995-2014 and we estimate VAR-ECM and other econometric models addressing potential endogeneity problems. [less ▲]

L’intermédiation financière dans les modèles macroéconomiques

Article for general public (2017)

Modelling financial markets remains a main challenge in current macroeconomic theory. This paper summarizes the main difficulties and reasons why financial aspects were not included earlier in ... [more ▼]

Modelling financial markets remains a main challenge in current macroeconomic theory. This paper summarizes the main difficulties and reasons why financial aspects were not included earlier in macroeconomic models. It describes the main modelling strategies adopted so far, from financial accelerator models to financial intermediation and banking crises. It also discusses briefly different interpretations of the Great Recession. [less ▲]

Growth and Welfare: Shifts in Labour Market Policies

in Iglesias-Rodriguez, Pablo; Triandafyllidou, Anna; Gropas, Ruby (Eds.) After the Financial Crisis. Shifting Legal, Economic and Political Paradigms (2016)

This chapter focuses on labour market policies in the European Union in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Labour market policies have two objectives: promoting growth and welfare, and enhancing the ... [more ▼]

This chapter focuses on labour market policies in the European Union in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Labour market policies have two objectives: promoting growth and welfare, and enhancing the resilience to economic shocks. They are typically implemented through institutional arrangements like job protection legislation, unemployment insurance schemes, formal wage bargaining processes, and so on. Institutions are only slowly changed, and the same applies to the labour market’s. Pressures for changes are not new. They appeared with world globalisation and the development of knowledge-based economies. They gained strength however after 2010, three years after the start of the crisis. We explain the motivation for this shift and why it did not take place earlier in the crisis. Although this policy shift should be seen as a change of emphasis rather than a sudden change of paradigm, it may ultimately contribute to a complete overhaul of labour market institutions in the current context of world globalization. The chapter is organised as follows. We first document the main consequences of the crisis on income and employment, and the rise of inequalities and of cross-country imbalances. We next discuss how (in-)effective market mechanisms have been in paving the way towards recovery. Against that background, we discuss the motivation and the relevance of the economic policies implemented in EU countries. We distinguish two sub-periods, before and after 2010. Until 2010, the focus was on the « European Economic Recovery Plan » and its national counterparts. With the onset of the sovereign debt crisis and the implementation of EU-wide fiscal consolidation policies, the focus shifted towards labour market policies and « competitiveness recovery » plans. We discuss the contents and motivation of such plans, and the difficulty to implement them successfully at a time of fiscal austerity. We conclude the chapter with a discussion about conflicting economic paradigms and their connection with ongoing economic changes. [less ▲]

Prendre la compétitivité au sérieux ?

Conference given outside the academic context (2015)

L’adhésion de la Lituanie à l’euro

Article for general public (2014)

Pas automatiquement une perte de compétitivité

Article for general public (2014)

Du baby-boom au baby-bust

Article for general public (2014)

Réduction de charges: priorité aux bas salaires

Article for general public (2014)

Regional Unemployment Theory - A Discussion

Presentation (2013, May)