The role of labor-income risk in household risk-taking

in European Economic Review (2020), 129(C),

In fifteen European countries, China, and the US, stocks and business equity as a share of total household assets are represented by an increasing and convex function of income/wealth. A parsimonious ... [more ▼]

In fifteen European countries, China, and the US, stocks and business equity as a share of total household assets are represented by an increasing and convex function of income/wealth. A parsimonious model fitted to the data shows why background labor-income risk can explain much of this risk-taking pattern. Uncontrollable labor-income risk stresses middle-income households more because labor income is a larger fraction of their total lifetime resources compared with the rich. In response, middle-income households reduce (controllable) financial risk. Richer households, having less pressure, can afford more risk-taking. The poor take low risk because they avoid jeopardizing their subsistence consumption. [less ▲]

Do demographics prevent consumption aggregates from reflecting micro-level preferences?

in European Economic Review (2019), 111(C),

Most simulated micro-founded macro models use solely consumer-demand aggregates in order to estimate preference parameters of a representative consumer, for use in policy evaluation. Focusing on dynamic ... [more ▼]

Most simulated micro-founded macro models use solely consumer-demand aggregates in order to estimate preference parameters of a representative consumer, for use in policy evaluation. Focusing on dynamic models with time-separable preferences, we show that aggregation holds if, and only if, momentary utility functions fall in the Identical-Shape Harmonic Absolute-Risk Aversion (ISHARA) utility class, identifying which parameters of ISHARA utility functions are allowed to vary over time. Given this theoretical result, it should be easy to empirically reject the aggregation properties that the macroeconomic representative-consumer identification approach requires: it suffices to show that permanent incomes guaranteeing the same living standard across households of different size violate an affine relationship. In order to test the validity of this affine equation, we develop a vignette survey that produces appropriate data without demand-estimation restrictions imposed by models. Surprisingly, in six countries, this equation is not rejected, lending support to using consumer-demand aggregates. [less ▲]

Market fragility and the paradox of the recent stock-bond dissonance

in Economics Letters (2018), 162

After the Lehman-Brothers collapse, the stock index has exceeded its pre-Lehman-Brothers peak by 36% in real terms. Seemingly, markets have been demanding more stocks instead of bonds. Yet, instead of ... [more ▼]

After the Lehman-Brothers collapse, the stock index has exceeded its pre-Lehman-Brothers peak by 36% in real terms. Seemingly, markets have been demanding more stocks instead of bonds. Yet, instead of observing higher bond rates, paradoxically, bond rates have been persistently negative after the Lehman-Brothers collapse. To explain this paradox, we suggest that, in the post-Lehman-Brothers period, investors changed their perceptions on disasters, thinking that disasters occur once every 30 years on average, instead of disasters occurring once every 60 years. In our asset-pricing calibration exercise, this rise in perceived market fragility alone can explain the drop in both bond rates and price–dividend ratios observed after the Lehman-Brothers collapse, which indicates that markets mostly demanded bonds instead of stocks. [less ▲]

Increasing taxes after a financial crisis: Not a bad idea after all

E-print/Working paper (2018)

Based on OECD evidence, equity/housing-price busts and credit crunches are followed by substantial increases in public consumption. These increases in unproductive public spending lead to increases in ... [more ▼]

Based on OECD evidence, equity/housing-price busts and credit crunches are followed by substantial increases in public consumption. These increases in unproductive public spending lead to increases in distortionary marginal taxes, a policy in sharp contrast with presumably optimal Keynesian fiscal stimulus after a crisis. Here we claim that this seemingly adverse policy selection is optimal under rational learning about the frequency of rare capital-value busts. Bayesian updating after a bust implies massive belief jumps toward pessimism, with investors and policymakers believing that busts will be arriving more frequently in the future. Lowering taxes would be as if trying to kick a sick horse in order to stand up and run, since pessimistic markets would be unwilling to invest enough under any temporarily generous tax regime. [less ▲]

Asset Pricing under Rational Learning about Rare Disasters

Scientific Conference (2017, January 07)

Why is investment in stocks so persistently weak after a rare disaster? Connecting disaster episodes with post-disaster expectations seems crucial for such post-disaster forecasting and also policymaking ... [more ▼]

Why is investment in stocks so persistently weak after a rare disaster? Connecting disaster episodes with post-disaster expectations seems crucial for such post-disaster forecasting and also policymaking, but rational-expectations models with variable disaster risk often fail to achieve this connection. To this end, while retaining full rationality, we introduce limited information and learning about rare-disaster risk and show that the resulting stock-investment behavior seems similar to persistent investor fear after a rare disaster. We study, (a) rational learning for state verification (RLS), with investors knowing the data-generating process of disaster riskiness but being unable to observe whether the economy is in a riskier state (regime) or not, and (b) rational learning about the data-generating process (RLP) of disaster risk, with investors also being unaware of the data-generating process of disaster riskiness. We analytically show that both RLS and RLP synchronize disaster events with post-disaster expectations and asset prices, and create persistence in price-dividend ratios even if data-generating processes of disaster risk have no persistence. Using De Finetti's theorem we show that RLP offers an explanation for global spells of pessimism and weak investment after a disaster. [less ▲]

Political Economics of Fiscal Consolidations and External Sovereign Accidents

E-print/Working paper (2016)

As the recent chain of EU sovereign crises has demonstrated, after an unexpected massive rise to the debt GDP ratio, several EU countries manage to proceed with fiscal consolidation quickly and ... [more ▼]

As the recent chain of EU sovereign crises has demonstrated, after an unexpected massive rise to the debt GDP ratio, several EU countries manage to proceed with fiscal consolidation quickly and effectively, while other countries, notably Greece, proceed slowly, fueling Graccident and Grexit scenarios, even after generous rescue packages, involving debt haircuts and monitoring from official bodies. Here we recursively formulate a game among rent-seeking groups and propose that high debt-GDP ratios lead to predictable miscoordination among rent-seeking groups, unsustainable debt dynamics, and open the path to political accidents that foretell Graccident scenarios. Our analysis and application helps in under- standing the politico-economic sustainability of sovereign rescues, emphasizing the need for fiscal targets and possible debt haircuts. We provide a calibrated example that quantifies the threshold debt-GDP ratio at 137%, remarkably close to the target set for private sector involvement in the case of Greece. [less ▲]

Battle Shocks in Early Life and Health/Wealth Accumulation: Theory and a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China

Presentation (2015, May)

Capital-value busts as a source of rational pessimistic policy swings

Presentation (2014, November 14)

Confronting the Represetantive Consumer with Household-Size Heterogeneity

Report (2014)

Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource Under Rational Learning About its Reproduction

Report (2014)